Is
ASML’s
Revenue
Projection
a
Crystal
Ball
or
Just
Wishful
Thinking
Amidst
Chip
Chaos?

EINDHOVEN,
NETHERLANDS
—
April
2025
—
Dutch
tech
giant

ASML,
the
company
that
makes
the
machines
that
make
the
chips
that
make
the
world
go
beep,
just
released
its
latest
revenue
projection.
And
the
verdict?
“Everything’s
going
to
be
just
fine,
guys.
Really.
No,
seriously.”

Yes,
ASML
has
peered
deep
into
the
quantum-infused,
AI-manufactured,
supply-chain-fractured
fog
of
the
global
semiconductor
industry—and
emerged
with

a
PowerPoint
and
a
positive
attitude.

Over
at

Bohiney.com,
we
analyzed
the
report
between
bursts
of
5G-induced
anxiety
and
microwaving
expired
Hot
Pockets.
And
we
ask:
Is
ASML
forecasting
the
future—or
manifesting
it
like
a
silicon-based
horoscope?

---

Welcome
to
the
Crystal
Fab

The
company’s
CEO,
Peter
Wennink,
announced
during
a
quarterly
call:

“We
believe
2025
will
be
a
strong
year,
as
long
as
demand
for
AI,
EVs,
data
centers,
crypto
mining,
drone
swarms,
toaster
touchscreens,
and
smart
toilet
seats
remains
strong.”

Which
is
like
saying,
“We’ll
be
fine
as
long
as
everything
you
plug
in
continues
to
exist.”

Meanwhile,
reporters
couldn’t
help
but
notice
the

comforting
aroma
of
lavender-scented
delusion
wafting
through
the
investor
slides.

If
optimism
were
a
semiconductor,
ASML
could
solve
world
hunger
by
etching
hope
into
wafers.

---

What
the
Report
Doesn’t
Mention

• China
  wants
  to
  reverse-engineer
  ASML’s
  lithography
  machines
  faster
  than
  a
  teenager
  jailbreaks
  an
  iPhone.

• The
  U.S.
  government
  still
  can’t
  tell
  the
  difference
  between
  a
  graphics
  card
  and
  a
  microwave
  oven.

• Taiwan
  is
  one
  missile
  away
  from
  turning
  the
  global
  chip
  supply
  into
  an
  episode
  of
  Naked
  and
  Afraid:
  Supply
  Chain
  Edition.

And
yet
ASML
says:
“Revenue’s
looking
good!”

That’s
like
saying
the
Titanic
bar’s
doing
great
business
while
deck
chairs
float
by.

---

The
Machines
That
Make
Civilization
(and
Melt
Bank
Accounts)

ASML’s
main
product—the

EUV
lithography
machine—costs
around

$200
million
apiece
and
is
so
complex
it
requires:

Only

a
handful
of
customers—including
TSMC,
Intel,
and,
allegedly,
Tony
Stark—can
even
afford
one.

And
yet,
ASML
projects
growth
like
it’s
selling
cupcakes
at
a
bake
sale.

ASML
is
the
only
company
that
treats
a
machine
with
27,000
parts
like
it’s
IKEA
furniture
for
nation-states.

---

What
the
Funny
People
Are
Saying

“ASML
machines
are
so
expensive,
they
come
with
a
mortgage
broker.”
—
Jerry
Seinfeld,
reviewing
tech
with
a
magnifying
glass

“I’d
believe
their
revenue
forecast
more
if
it
wasn’t
filed
under
‘Mystic
Projections’
and
printed
in
Comic
Sans.”
—
Wanda
Sykes,
while
trying
to
3D-print
her
own
Wi-Fi

“Every
country
wants
these
machines,
and
ASML’s
over
here
like
the
lunch
lady
with
the
last
tray
of
nuggets.”
—
Ron
White,
leaning
on
a
transistor
and
sipping
bourbon

“Even
Miss
Cleo
wouldn’t
predict
growth
during
a
chip
war
and
a
cold
war
2.0—but
sure,
go
off.”
—
Larry
David,
fuming
in
a
silicon-fortified
bathrobe

“I
asked
ChatGPT
what
ASML
stands
for.
It
said,
‘All
Semiconductors
Might
Lie.’”
—
Sarah
Silverman,
muttering
while
scrolling
Taiwanese
stock
prices

---

ASML’s
outlook
is
so
sunny
it’s
being
used
to
grow
microgreens
in
the
Netherlands.

---

U.S.
and
China:
The
Custody
Battle
Over
Technology

The
U.S.
has
slapped
export
restrictions
on
ASML
machines
going
to
China,
which
means:

• China
  is
  trying
  to
  build
  its
  own
  version
  from
  scratch

• ASML
  is
  stuck
  in
  the
  middle
  like
  a
  Dutch
  divorce
  lawyer

• Every
  briefing
  now
  includes
  the
  phrase
  “geopolitical
  stress,”
  which
  is
  Silicon
  Valley
  code
  for
  “our
  pants
  are
  wet
  and
  we’re
  not
  sure
  why”

Still,
the
company’s
forecast
remains
upbeat—more
stable
than
Ukraine,
more
hopeful
than
TikTok
investors,
and
more
confusing
than
AI
Terms
of
Service.

ASML’s
product
launch
events
are
so
technical
that
people
have
gone
blind
reading
the
footnotes.

---

Industry
Analysts
React
with
a
Mix
of
Applause
and
Nervous
Sweating

Market
analysts
were
divided:

• 
  Optimists:
  “ASML’s
  long-term
  growth
  potential
  is
  undeniable.”

• 
  Realists:
  “The
  global
  order
  is
  collapsing
  but
  yeah,
  cool
  lasers.”

• 
  Conspiracy
  Theorists:
  “These
  machines
  are
  obviously
  alien
  in
  origin.”

One
hedge
fund
manager
reportedly
lit
a
candle,
spun
in
a
circle,
and
shouted
“photolithography!”
just
to
make
the
numbers
feel
real.

---

Silicon
Sells,
No
Matter
the
Crisis

In
fairness,
demand
for
chips
isn’t
going
away.
Every:

Still,
when
a
company’s
supply
chain
relies
on
both
global
peace
and
helium,
you
might
want
to
dial
down
the
PowerPoint
glitter.

There
are
forums
where
chip
nerds
refer
to
ASML
as
“The
Holy
Fabber.”
One
Reddit
thread
theorized
that
if
you
chant
“extreme
ultraviolet
lithography”
in
the
mirror
three
times,
a
TSMC
recruiter
appears.

---

Final
Thought:
Crystal
Ball
or
Crystal
Meth?

So,
is
ASML’s
revenue
forecast
legitimate?
Is
it
a
beacon
of
calm
in
a
storm
of
silicon
scarcity?
Or
is
it
a
delusional
bedtime
story
for
stockholders
who
sleep
with
Nvidia
plush
toys?

One
thing’s
for
sure:
they’re
the
last
ones
you
want
to
piss
off
if
you
enjoy
electricity,
the
internet,
or
microwavable
food.

So
yes,
they
might
be
overly
optimistic—but
if
anyone
deserves
to
gamble
on
the
future,
it’s
the
people
who
literally
laser-etch
the
future
into
reality.

Auf
Wiedersehen,
caution.
ASML
has
chips
to
bake
and
PowerPoints
to
bless.

ASML’s
Revenue
Projection
–
A
wide
satirical
cartoon
illustration
set
inside
a
high-tech,
absurd
ASML
chip
fabrication
lab,
in
a
detailed
and
exaggerated
vintage
comic
style
…

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